Election is Mathematics. Most people win elections because they do a lot planning that involves lots and lots of critical thinking, calculus and symbolic logic. I had the privilege of being involved in the Political Chemistry Lab of the campaign for Asiwaju in 1999 in Lagos and also in the campaign for his successor, Mr Babatunde Fashola in 2007. The head of the Strategic Campaign, Comrade Foud Oki, would come into the boardroom with a chalk and a big board.
He would draw diagram, graph and make his presentation in the form of symbolic logic, analysing the strength, opportunities and weaknesses of the elections the way a surgeon performs his job. In an election well planned, the end of the contest is predictable, in an election poorly planned, defeat would be imminent.
A good politician is the one that knows self and knows the enemy. A politician that does not know himself and has little knowledge of his adversary is on a shipwreck. Knowing yourself and knowing the territory, in form and content, is strength, knowing yourself and not knowing the territory is weakness of the highest order.
I have been involved in Osun and Ondo elections too and I was given the rare privilege to be the Director of Campaign for Dr Kayode Fayemi in 2007. I wish to share my little knowledge on the coming elections in Ekiti state based on statistics from the 2014 election.
The Governor, Mr Ayodele Fayose has recently picked his deputy, Prof Eleka to succeed him. This has raised dust within and without. Suggestions are that he picked the Prof from Ikere, Ekiti South in order to douse the genuine agitation of the people from the area.
The alternative party in Ekiti, the All Progressives Congress, (APC) faces the same uproar with some voices demanding that the platform should seek its candidate from the same South. This challenge has been countered by a string of equally formidable candidates from Ekiti North and Ekiti Central. To me, while regional blocs are important, the candidates need to understand the power equation fully, using the theory of tradition and numbers.
· In my mind, the South has the legitimate right to snatch the trophy. The question: is the average Ekiti voter really influences by regional interests? I choose to think that in as much as any region has the fundamental right to lay claim to produce the next governor, other factors, in terms of the voting strength of each city, LG and district should be considered.
Building alliances solely on regional blocs may be counterproductive. If anyone from the Center, North or South wants to win decisively, it cannot be on relying on the district along. Any candidate that wishes to explore the politics of turn by turn, must be prepared to raise the banner beyond the traditional trench.
The PAST
Let us use the 2014 election in Ekiti as a reference point. In terms of registered voters, the least is Ilejemeje with 11,816 votes followed by Efon, with 22,838 votes. The highest is Ado, with 137,155 votes. The next big four in order of strength are: Irepodun-Ifelodun , 54,085; Ijero, 49, 417; Ikole 49,390; Ekiti East 47,288;Oye 45,918.
In order of valid votes cast, here is the figure in order of numerical strength: Ado, 59,480; Ijero, 26,589; Ikole, 26,252; Irepodun-Ifelodun 24, 566; Ekiti East, 23,043; Oye, 23,003. Ikere 25, 880 votes. There were 733,766 registered voters in Ekiti, 369,257 were accredited while 350,366 voted.
LESSONS
o Now, let us take the least two LGs: Ilejemeje and Efon. In the last election, Ilejemeje had 7,460 votes while Efon had 9,698. In many ways, the voting pattern reflected the registration of number of voters in each LG with the exception of a little tilt in Irepodun Ifelodun LG where more people appear to have voted. From the above, Ado has the highest number of potential voters, representing 18 percent of the votes cast.
This may not necessarily be a preponderance of votes of Ado indigenes, considering the number of settlers in Ado, but it is expected that Ado indigenes have a majority. This is followed by Ijero and then Ikole LG. With 59,480 votes coming from Ado, the area controls more than twice the votes coming from Ikere, has about 16 percent of the votes in Ekiti. Ikere has 7 percent, Ikole 7.2, Ijero 7.3 percent.
In terms of senatorial strength, Ekiti Central has the highest votes with 140,931, followed by South with 121,262 and North with 98,262, a difference of about 20,000 votes between Central and South, a difference of 20,00 between South and North. There are ‘stand out cities’ in terms of electoral fortunes.
In the South are, Ikere, Omuo and Ilawe; in the North, Ikole and Oye and in the Center, Ado and Ijero. The three iconic LGs in the three districts are Ado, Ikere and Ikole. An alliance of these three cities is enough to change the voting pendulum. But there are fiery traditional voting blocs like Efon, Aramoko, Oke-imesi and others.
It shows clearly that not a single Senatorial section is powerful enough to breast the tape without a strategic alliance with at least one out of the three Senatorial districts or at least with two of the ‘lion-cities’. However, boycotting an entire district for an alliance with a single city or LG is not impossible.
It must be observed that though two local governments, Ilejemeje and Efon have the smallest number of registered voters, the two however, have the most fanatical and homogenous voting patterns with the likelihood of many of their voters going the same direction in one chunk of “blood-bound vote,” mainly due to homogeneity and shared history. A tactical politician will never neglect Ilejemeje and Efon
Quick lessons:
· Every candidate that wants to win must consider the entire Ekiti as a battle field to be won.
· Strategic cities, towns and LGs will influence the next election.
· The highest number of votes will still come from the Ado.
· Ado and Ikere will still produce the highest number of single-city votes.
· Any alliance thought along blocs cannot do without Ado, Irepodun-Ifelodun, Ikole, Ijero and Ikere.
· The spring LGs are Ado, Ikere, Ijero, Ikole and Omuo.
Ido-Osi will remain fanatically loyal (we all know him) to one of his sons in the APC primary and post primary.
Homogenous voting patterns are likely to occur in Ado, Ikere and Ikole
· Fanatical votes likely to occur in the traditional homes of the candidates, but not likely across the entire states except in smaller but highly significant and decisive territories of Efon and Ilejemeje where fanatical votes will occur and reoccur.
· The voting patterns will remain the same but to be altered dramatically depending on territories from where each candidate will emerge from.
· This projection does not in any way represent a final note, but a simple contribution to the search for knowledge in the political future of Ekiti, the beautiful place of my birth.
Adewale Adeoye, a journalist writes from Ekiti
