In a few days time the tenure of Mr. Ambode will expire as the Lagos State governor and governor elect, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-olu will be sworn in as the governor of Lagos State. The question that will probably be agitating the minds of residents of Lagos State and Yorubas in general now is:what is the prospects of peace in APC and Lagos State in particular after the handing over ceremonies?
This question even becomes more germane when one reflects on the differences between Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Chief SLA Akintola in the old Western Region which developed into a coflagration that not only consumed Western Region (epicentre of the conflict) but the whole of the second Republic when the dust finally settled.
While it may be an hyperbol to equate Ambode with Akintola and the Godfather as Awolowo, it certainly can be said that the comparison is not far-fetched the two being contestations for power and the resources of the land.
From the perspective of Mr. Sanwo-olu, even though not many people knew him before he emerged as governorship candidate, he probably would work towards peace. This conclusion is borne by the way he handled all the diatribes Ambode hurled against him during the war for the governorship ticket; the need for peace to be able to deliver on his promises.
Those who know him also say that “he is a gentle man that the people of Lagos will enjoy”. He is also described as a man with sartorial taste ( the massive renovation works that he embarked upon at the decaying LSDPC is cited as example to back up this claim) But are politicians not chameleons? Is Sanwo-olu likely to be the same after May 29, 2019? Only time will tell.
If this can be said about Sanwo-olu, can it also be said that Ambode will work towards peace when out of office? The answer is in the air! But one can get a glimpse of how his mind is working right now as to what to expect after May 29, 2019, when last he visited President Muhammadu Buhari ostensibly to thank him for creating time to come over to Lagos to commission his political signature projects.
While addressing journalists after his visit at the Presidential Villa, Ambode told the journalists that he is now “a better politician”. A discerning observer would note that this statement is pregnant with meaning and a manifestation that atomic grade cauldron is still boiling in the belly of the outgoing governor.
The question could equally be asked: is there justification for Ambode to be embittered for not clinching a second term? The answer is “yes” and “no”. Yes to the extent that in civilized democracies, where incumbents have signified their intentions to run for a second term, party members usually defer to them, where there is no scandal trailing them; they would not lead their party to defeat in an election and there is no manifest ideological split within the party.
In addition, Ambode’s performance in office was considered decent even though not much effort has been made to match the resources at his disposal with the projects and programmes on ground. Of course, there is also the saying that in the land of the blind a one eyed man would be hailed as a superstar.
On the other hand, the answer should be no because Ambode did not get the party ticket to be governor on merit. If one looks at the pecking order in the party then, there was no way he could have clinched the party ticket to become governor.
Furthermore, just as it happened when he was to be ousted, the party primaries were skewed in his favour as against other contestants. Interestingly too, the number of votes returned or counted in the primary that produced Ambode were more than the number of delegates that were accredited for that convention.
It would be recollected that some contestants at that primary wanted to challenge the results in court but were prevailed upon to sheath the sword. The short of it is that Ambode like Sanwolu is a product of a system that uses the governorship seat of Lagos State to reward the good boys. The lesson here is: he who rides the tiger should be weary of ending up in the belly of the tiger.
But was Ambode not aware of the peril of mounting the tiger? I think he was aware otherwise he would not have been building his own structures and funding them immediately he assumed office. I once found myself in the midst of one of those structures at a Lagos Television programme where i was unwittingly used to balance the praise singing that the governor’s supporters came to do.
However, I do remember that I was bold enough to tell the court jesters that it does not seem Ambode will get a second term for several reasons. Among these was the view that the godfathers would hardly want to see any of their acolytes stay in power for eight years to avoid empowering them and strengthening their hands such that they could in future begin to undermine them.
Furthermore, there was the ferocious assault Ambode launched on the political structures built around the refuse managers; manipulation of the local government system; shuffling of commissioners and pampering of the House of Assembly members with the resources of the state, all of which were geared towards loosening the hands of the godfathers on party structures; consolidating the governor’s hands on these structures so as to make it easier for him to get a second term.
But the tragedy was, most of the people he had banked on their support and pampered ended up betraying him, while those who did not betray him simply lacked the courage to take on the godfathers.
As it is said: whoever has seen a thunder strike will be hesitant to team up with or gang up with those who are out to disparage or deprecate the god of thunder. Of course, Ambode was equally a witness to what Fashola went through (before he was grudgingly given a second term ticket) not to know that it will be an herculean task to secure a second term. In fairness, the governor was thoroughly out manoeuvred; totally out gunned and decisively encircled.
It may also be asked:why contest when in this kind of very vulnerable position? And was it not stupid to have contested the primaries against these odds? Given the resources at the disposal of the governor; the hypocrisy; deceit and treachery prevalent and associated with Nigerian politics, there are very few people who will be in Ambode’s position who would have been able to resist the temptation to seek a second term.
I think his standing up to fight is good for the polity in the long run. Very few people ever win all their life battles. You win some and lose some. Ambode simply found himself in the precarious situation of an army general who either fights to finish or risk being captured by enemy forces and be subjected to humiliation; ignominy and eventually, execution.
He chose to fight. At least, he was able to ruffle the feathers of the godfathers such that this forced them to jettison the practice of having a female deputy governor. They godfathers opted for Hamzat who is as good as the governor elect to avoid defeat. In other words, the party was compelled to burn its candles from the two ends.
History is most likely to be kind to Ambode for fighting and demonstrating courage when it matters most. In fact, the party situation could have been made more difficult if Ambode had shown circumspection by not fighting Fashola; cultivating Muiz Banire as well as other disgruntled elements in the party. Everyday, the godfathers take their buckets to the well, one day, the bottom will definitely fall out.
The conclusion is, given the resources in the trappings of Ambode and the burning desire for a second term, there is the prospects of a titanic political battle between Ambode and his traducers after May 29, 2019.
And what is most likely to determine the texture and extent of the fight is the choice that Sanwolu will have to make with regards to exposing Ambode’s ass and using the Economic and Financial Commission (EFCC) to contain him just like Ambode himself tried to do to Fashola before he was reigned in; the political platform on which he Ambode decides to wage his war (it may not be advisable for him to use his present party); the disposition of his lieutenants to him when out of office; his ability not just to build structures but also a new party and of course, the building of bridges across the different ethnic groups and vault lines in Lagos. To be a better politician is a demonstrable outcome.
Tunde Kolawole, a lawyer and Public Affairs Analyst writes from Lagos.
